Ask the Meteorologist: How much more rain do we need now to get out of this drought?

I know there has been so much drought talk over the past several months. This has been the worst drought, though, that we have seen in almost 20 years. Any time we get some beneficial rain, it is good to embrace the win but also put the rain into perspective.

We still need a lot of rain to pull us out of the drought. Let's break down how much rain we have seen so far this month and how much we need to break the drought in a one month period.

How about this past month? It has been great to see a shift in our pattern to wetter weather. There have been a handful of days that have been particularly wet since the start of July. We had 1.54" of rain on July 6 and had 2.02" the day after on July 7. Then, we had 1.48" on July 20 and 2.04" on July 23. In total, through Thursday, July 23, we've had 8.83" of rain. That is 5.25" above average!

We are grateful for this rain, but when we look at the total amount of rain we have on average during a water year (starts October 1 and goes through Sept. 30), we are still well-below average.

At RDU as of the July 22, we were 10.73" below average, making 2025-26 the third driest water year on record. In Fayetteville as of the same date, we were 16.93" below average, the fourth driest water year on record there.

It is better to look at the totals for the water year, because this follows the natural water cycle instead of the typical calendar year.

Across the state, we still need anywhere from around 14 inches of rain towards the mountains to just over 21 inches of rain in our southern spots and towards the coastline. This data is as of July 21, but even with the rain on the July 23, we still need a lot more rain to really put a dent in our drought.

You may be wondering: How are we 11 inches below average for the water year, but we still need about 18 inches within a one month period to break the drought? Well, that average for the water year is just an average. The drought also started before the start of October, and we need a lot of water to break even but also fill our reservoirs, increase soil moisture levels and much more.